ﻣﺪل ﺳﺎزي رﺷﺪ و ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮد ﮔﻨﺪم ﭘﺎﻳﻴﺰه در اﺳﺘﺎن ﻫﻤﺪان

Modeling growth and yield of winter wheat in Hamadan province

ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﻣﺪل ﺳﺎزي ﻣﺮاﺣﻞ رﺷﺪ و ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮد ﮔﻨﺪم ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس آﻣﺎر ﻫﻮاﺷﻨﺎﺳﻲ اﺳﺘﺎن ﻫﻤﺪان (دﻣﺎي ﺣﺪاﻗﻞ، دﻣـﺎي ﺣـﺪاﻛﺜﺮ، ﻣﻘـﺪار ﺗﺎﺑﺶ و ﻣﻴﺰان ﺑﺎرﻧﺪﮔﻲ) ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از زﻳﺮ ﻣﺪل ﻫﺎي ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﻓﻨﻮﻟﻮژي، ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ و ﺗﻮزﻳﻊ ﻣﺎده ﺧﺸﻚ، ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮات ﺳـﻄﺢ ﺑـﺮگ در ﮔﻴـﺎه ﮔﻨـﺪم ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌـﻪ اي در داﻧﺸﻜﺪه ﻛﺸﺎورزي داﻧﺸﮕﺎه وﻟﻴﻌﺼﺮ (ﻋﺞ) رﻓﺴﻨﺠﺎن در ﺑﻬﺎر ﺳﺎل 1394 ﺻﻮرت ﮔﺮﻓﺖ ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎي زﻳﺮ ﻣـﺪل ﻣـﺬﻛﻮر ﺑـﺎ اﺳـﺘﻔﺎده از داده ﻫـﺎي ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﻫﺎي ﺻﻮرت ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ در اﻳﺮان و ﺳﺎﻳﺮ ﻛﺸﻮرﻫﺎ ﺑﺮآورد ﮔﺮدﻳﺪ. ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﺪل ﻣﺬﻛﻮر ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮات روزاﻧـﻪ ﻣﺮﺑـﻮط ﺑـﻪ ﻓﻨﻮﻟـﻮژي،ﻣﺎده ﺧﺸﻚ ﻛﻠﻮ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺑﺮداﺷﺖ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺪ ﺳﭙﺲ ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮد در ﭘﺎﻳﺎن ﻓﺼﻞ رﺷﺪ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﮔﺮدﻳﺪ. ﻳﻜﻲ از ﻣﻌﻴﺎرﻫـﺎي ارزﻳـﺎﺑﻲ ﻣـﺪل، ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴـﻪ ضرايب رگرسيون خطي بين عملكرد مشاهده شده و پيش بيني شده (a=0/73±0/10 و 0/67±b=0/90) با ضرايب خط 1:1 كه (0 و 1) مي باشد. در ﺧﺼﻮص ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮات ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮد داﻧﻪ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﺷﺪه و ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪه ﺷﺪه (7/28=CV) دﻗﺖ ﻣﺪل ﺑﺴﻴﺎر ﺑﺎﻻ ﺑﻮده ﺑﻪ ﮔﻮﻧﻪ اي ﻛﻪ در آزﻣﺎﻳﺸﺎت ﻣﺰرﻋﻪ اي ﺣﺪ ﻣﺠﺎز ﺑﺮاي ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮات 20 ﺗﺎ 25 ﻣﻲ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﻣﻘﺪار R2 ﺑﺮاي ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮد داﻧﻪ ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ ﺑـﺎ 0/81 ﺑـﻮده ﻛـﻪ اﻳـﻦ اﻣـﺮ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﮕﺮ اﻳﻦ اﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل 81 درﺻﺪ داده ﻫﺎي ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﺷﺪه ﺑﺎ داده ﻫﺎي ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪه ﺷﺪه ﻫﻤﺨﻮاﻧﻲ دارﻧﺪ. از دﻳﮕﺮ آﻣﺎره ﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮاي ارزﻳﺎﺑﻲ دﻗﺖ ﻣﺪل اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﻣﻲ ﮔﺮدد، ﺟﺬر ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﻣﺮﺑﻌﺎت ﺧﻄﺎ (RMSE) ﻣﻲ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻛﻪ در ﻣﻮرد ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮد داﻧﻪ 0/43 ﺑﻮد ﻛﻪ ﻧﺸـﺎن دﻫﻨـﺪه دﻗـﺖ ﺑـﺎﻻي ﻣﺪل در ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮد اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﻲ دﻫﺪ ﻛﻪ داﻣﻨﻪ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮات ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮد داﻧﻪ ﮔﻨﺪم ﺑﺮاي داده ﻫﺎي ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪه ﺷﺪه ﺑﻴﻦ 4/08 ﺗﻦ ﺗﺎ 8/01 ﺗﻦ در ﻫﻜﺘﺎر و ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ داده ﻫﺎ 6/09 ﺗﻦ ﺑﻮد و ﺑﺮاي داده ﻫﺎي ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﺷﺪه داﻣﻨﻪ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮات ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮد ﺑﻴﻦ 4/08 ﺗﺎ 7/59 ﺗﻦ و ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ آﻧﻬﺎ 5/53 ﺗـﻦ در ﻫﻜﺘﺎر ﺑﻮد.

In order to modeling of growth stages and yield of wheat according to Hamedan province meteorological data (minimum and maximum temperature, radiation and rainfall) By using the sub models of phenology, production and distribution of dry matter and leaf area changes in maize studies was conducted at the Faculty of Agriculture, University of Vali-e-Asr Rafsanjan in spring 2015. The parameters of sub model were estimated according to data from previous researches in Iran and other countries. Daily changes of phenology, harvest Index total dry matter and leaf area was calculated using the model and the yield at the end of season was predicted. One of the criteria to evaluation of a model is Comparison between coefficients of linear regression of observed and predicted yield (b=0.90±0.67 and a=0.73±0.10) and coefficients of line 1:1 (1, 0). Accuracy of the model related to coefficient of variations of predicted and observed seed yield (CV= 7.28) was very high so that in field experiments coefficient of variations limit is 20 to 25. R2 quantity of seed yield was 0.81; showing that the probability for coordination of predicted and observed data is 81 percent. The Root mean square error is the other statistics which is used to evaluation of model accuracy. The Root mean square error of seed yield was 0.43, which is evidence of accuracy of model for yield prediction. domain variation for observed and predicted data were 4.08-8.01 tones and 4.08-7.59 tons per hectare respectively and the means were 6.09 and 5.53 tones per hectare respectively.