پديد آورندگان :
نوريان، فرشاد دانشگاه تهران - پرديس هنرهاي زيبا - دانشكده شهرسازي , قاضي، رضا دانشگاه تهران - پرديس هنرهاي زيبا , عبدالله پور، سجاد دانشگاه هنر تهران - دانشكده معماري و شهرسازي
كليدواژه :
پهنه هاي مناسب توسعه شهري , سلول هاي خودكار , روش FUZZY_AHP , آسيب پذيري لرزه اي , ناحيه 3 از منطقه 3 شهر مشهد
چكيده فارسي :
تحليل تناسب زمين براي توسعه شهري عمل بسيار مهمي است كه برنامه ريزان شهري با هدف شناسايي اراضي مناسب و اولويت دار براي توسعه شهري به كار مي گيرند. كلان شهر مشهد به واسطه وجود گسل هاي فعال بينالود و كشف رود و فرسودگي بيش از 25 درصد نواحي و محلات آن، داراي آسيب پذيري بالاي در برابر مخاطرات زلزله است. از جمله نواحي كه درگير گسترش فيزيكي و جمعيتي است و به دليل فرسودگي و مجاورت با گسل در مواجه با زلزله بسيار آسيب پذير است، ناحيه 3 از منطقه 3 شهر مشهد است. هدف مقاله حاضر شناسايي پهنه هاي مناسب توسعه شهري در جهت كاهش آسيب پذيري لرزه اي در ناحيه مذكور است. روش بكار گرفته شده، توصيفي-تحليلي و جمع آوري داده ها، به صورت كتابخانه اي و ميداني صورت گرفته است. شبيه سازي توسعه آتي از روش CA-Markov در نرم افزار IDRISI 17 صورت گرفته و از مدل تركيبي FUZZY-AHP و نرم افزارهاي ARCGIS و Expert Choice براي محاسبه وزن زيرمعيارها و فازي سازي لايه ها بهره برده شده است. ارزيابي آسيب پذيري محدوده در برابر زلزله نيز با استفاده از روش WOI در نرم افزار ARCGIS صورت گرفت و وزن دهي و اولويت بندي زيرمعيارهاي آسيب پذيري بر اساس روش آزمون فريدمن و در نرم افزار SPSS بر اساس نظرات كارشناسي اخذ شده در پرسشنامه ها انجام شد. بر اساس نتايج، حدود 85 درصد از سطح محدوده داراي آسيب پذيري متوسط رو به بالا مي باشند. همچنين پيش بيني رشد و توسعه محدوده بر اساس روند سال هاي گذشته و شبيه سازي گسترش كالبدي سال 1400 با استفاده از روش CA-MARKOV، نشان مي دهد گسترش محدوده در بخش هاي شمالي، شمال غربي و شرق محدوده خواهد بود كه اين گسترش در بخش هايي اتفاق افتاده كه داراي آسيب پذيري متوسط و زياد در برابر زلزله مي باشند. همچنين پيش بيني پهنه هاي توسعه با استفاده از روش FUZZY_AHP، نشان داد از بين، زيرمعيارها توسعه، قابليت اراضي (0.218)، توپوگرافي (0.185) و فاصله از گسل (0.145) بيشترين اولويت را از بين ساير زيرمعيارها دارند و پهنه هاي مناسب توسعه بخش هاي شمال-شرقي و شمال غربي محدوده است.
چكيده لاتين :
Growing urban areas that contains large areas of land, today, in low latitudes, especially in developing countries, that the growth of cities in them has exceeded Europe and North America, caused problems for cities. The most important problems and problems of physical growth and expansion of cities are: The natural and environmental hazards of urban areas, destruction of green spaces, gardens and agricultural lands, severe changes in utilization, air pollution, soil and water resources, vulnerability to earthquake, floods, landslides, etc. Meanwhile, earthquake is an internal geomorphic process, which will carry a lot of destruction and caused damage for so many cities in our country throughout history and neglecting it in the locating of cities will have adverse effects. The Mashhad Metropolis is the center and largest city in the Khorasan Razavi province in Iran, which has had a significant population growth over the past decades, and consequently a significant physical development. The city of Mashhad is located in the area of high earthquake vulnerability according to the studies of comprehensive plan of the city. One of the areas of Mashhad, which has undergone significant physical growth during recent decades and has high physical expansion due to the presence of vacant lands, is the third region of the third part of the city. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to identify the appropriate zones for urban development to reduce the vulnerability of earthquakes. The method used for this paper is descriptive-analytical. Data collection is done in the library and field. Also simulation of the future development, has been done by CA-Markov method and in IDRISI 17 software and The FUZZY-AHP combination model and the ARCGIS and Expert Choice software have been used to calculate sub-criteria weight and layer fuzzation. The evaluation of the vulnerability to the earthquake area was also done using the WOI method in ARCGIS software, and weighing and prioritizing vulnerability subtypes were based on Friedman test method and SPSS software based on the expert opinions received in the questionnaires. According to the analysis, the study area from the point of vulnerability is in adverse conditions, so that about 85 percent of the area is in medium upward of vulnerability. Also, the prediction of the growth and development of the range based on the trend of past years (land use map of 1380 and land use map of 2011) and simulation of physical expansion of 1400 using CA-MARKOV method, shows that the expansion of the range in section North, northwest, and east are the areas where this expansion occurs in parts that have moderate and high vulnerability to earthquakes. Also, prediction of development zones using the FUZZY_AHP method showed that from the sub-criteria of development, land use capability (0.218), topography (0.185) and distance from fault (0.145), gradient (0.107), road and access (0.088 ) and ... have the highest priority among the other sub-criteria, and the appropriate development zones are based on the fuzzy layers and the formation of these weighted layers, the northeast and northwest parts of the area From these two parts, the northeastern part of the area, according to the vulnerability map of the area, in which the vulnerability zone has a moderate and low share of the area, has a greater priority for development.
