برآورد هزينه‌هاي رفاهي انحصار در صنعت خودروي ايران

Estimation of the Welfare Costs of Monopoly Power in Iran's Auto Industry

اين مقاله به برآورد خالص زيان رفاهي ناشي از انحصار در صنعت خودروي سواري ايران مي‌پردازد. بدين منظور از داده‌هاي تركيبي 6 بنگاه خودروسازي طي سال‌هاي 1386-1379 و نيز از روش ليبنشتاين و كومانور (1969) كه علاوه بر لحاظ ناكارايي تخصيصي (مثلث رفاه)، آثار رفاهي ناشي از ناكارايي X را نيز در محاسبات لحاظ مي‌نمايد؛ استفاده شده است. نتايج به دست آمده نشان مي‌دهد كه هزينه‌هاي رفاهي ناشي از عملكرد x با لحاظ آثار رفاهي ناشي از ناكارايي تخصيص اين صنعت حدود 1/7درصد از ارزش توليد ناخالص داخلي سال 1386 بوده است.

In the literature on economic growth, foreign trade is regarded as a growth factor since it is an effective factor in forming a country’s economy and is capable of influencing all economic sectors. Among different foreign trade approaches, such as export and import, development of non-oil exports is one of the most important economic and political issues which enjoys top priority not only for the sake of absorbing foreign currency, but in terms of providing employment opportunities in the country. In this paper, the main discussion is around the analysis of the growth effect of non-oil exports on the domestic non-oil GDP growth and also export growth in separate sectors of agriculture and industry on domestic GDP of these sectors during 1974-2009 using Feder growth model in Iran. The findings of the study show that non-oil exports of Iran have no significant effect on the growth of non-oil GDP. It is also seen that agricultural export has no meaningful effect on its GDP growth, while it is not benefitting from the export of other non-oil sectors and oil exports. While GDP of industrial sectors is influenced by the exports of this sector, it is also benefiting from the exports of non-oil sectors and oil exports, among which the effect of other non-oil sector’s exports surpasses the other two sectors.