Title of article :
Separating aleatory and epistemic uncertainties: Probabilistic sewer flooding evaluation using probability box
Author/Authors :
Siao Sun، نويسنده , , Guangtao Fu، نويسنده , , Slobodan Djordjevic، نويسنده , , Soon-Thiam Khu، نويسنده ,
Issue Information :
روزنامه با شماره پیاپی سال 2012
Pages :
13
From page :
360
To page :
372
Abstract :
Uncertainty is generally present in flood evaluation and can be divided into aleatory and epistemic categories. It is not uncommon that flood evaluation has to consider both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties when a simulation model is used. This paper presents a probability box methodology that enables various representations of uncertainty to be simultaneously propagated through a model while separation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties is preserved in the model output. The proposed methodology is applied to a sewer flood evaluation problem, in which rainfall variables are characterized by probability boxes and two model parameters are respectively described by fuzzy sets and random sets. Consequently, the probabilistic flood evaluation is expressed by probability boxes. Simulation results demonstrate the critical importance of separating aleatory and epistemic uncertainties and of maintaining the uncertainty type (either aleatory or epistemic) in uncertainty propagation. It is suggested that the pooling of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties may lead to incoherent information in the model output.
Keywords :
Sewer flooding , Uncertainty analysis , Aleatory and epistemic uncertainty , Fuzzy sets , Probability box , Random sets
Journal title :
Journal of Hydrology
Serial Year :
2012
Journal title :
Journal of Hydrology
Record number :
1096428
Link To Document :
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