Title of article :
Evaluation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models based on distributional comparison of simulated and historical data
Author/Authors :
Corradi، نويسنده , , Valentina and Swanson، نويسنده , , Norman R.، نويسنده ,
Issue Information :
دوفصلنامه با شماره پیاپی سال 2007
Pages :
25
From page :
699
To page :
723
Abstract :
We take as a starting point the existence of a joint distribution implied by different dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, all of which are potentially misspecified. Our objective is to compare “true” joint distributions with ones generated by given DSGEs. This is accomplished via comparison of the empirical joint distributions (or confidence intervals) of historical and simulated time series. The tool draws on recent advances in the theory of the bootstrap, Kolmogorov type testing, and other work on the evaluation of DSGEs, aimed at comparing the second order properties of historical and simulated time series. We begin by fixing a given model as the “benchmark” model, against which all “alternative” models are to be compared. We then test whether at least one of the alternative models provides a more “accurate” approximation to the true cumulative distribution than does the benchmark model, where accuracy is measured in terms of distributional square error. Bootstrap critical values are discussed, and an illustrative example is given, in which it is shown that alternative versions of a standard DSGE model in which calibrated parameters are allowed to vary slightly perform equally well. On the other hand, there are stark differences between models when the shocks driving the models are assigned non-plausible variances and/or distributional assumptions.
Keywords :
Output , Model selection , Simulated models , Real business cycles , Empirical distribution
Journal title :
Journal of Econometrics
Serial Year :
2007
Journal title :
Journal of Econometrics
Record number :
1559126
Link To Document :
بازگشت