Study on the hydrogen demand in China based on system dynamics model

Reasonable estimation of hydrogen energy and other renewable energy demand of Chinaʹs medium and long-term energy is of great significance for Chinaʹs medium and long-term energy plan. Therefore, based on both Chinaʹs future economic development and relative economic theory and system dynamics theory, this article analyzes qualitatively the internal factors and external factors of hydrogen energy demand system, and makes the state high and low two assumptions about Chinaʹs medium and long-term hydrogen demand according to the different speed of Chinaʹs economic development. After the system dynamic model setting up export and operation, the output shows the data changes of the total hydrogen demand and the four kinds of hydrogen demand. According to the analysis of the output, two conclusions are concluded: The secondary industry, not the tertiary industry (mainly the transportation), should be firstly satisfied by the hydrogen R&D and support of Government policy. Change of Chinese hydrogen demand scale, on basis of its economic growth, can not be effective explained through Chinese economic growth rate, and other influencing factor and mechanism should be probed deeply.