Seismic hazard assessment for greater North China from historical intensity observations

Seismic hazards in greater North China were estimated from 500 years of intensity observations. Historical intensity observations were collected, the completeness of the earthquake catalog was tested, and aftershocks were deleted. The intensity data were digitized and placed in a geographic information system (GIS). Finally, the digitized intensity data were analyzed to determine the frequency–intensity relationship (i.e., seismic hazard curve). Seismic risks were also estimated, assuming a Poisson distribution for earthquake occurrence in time. The results show that greater North China faces significant seismic hazards and risks. The results also show that the current design peak ground acceleration (PGA) for greater North China might not be adequate, particularly for the Beijing, Tianjin, and Tangshan areas.