Spatial variability of recent glacier area changes in the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia, using Corona (~ 1970), Landsat (~ 2000), and ALOS (~ 2007) satellite data

Geographic variability of the recent changes of glacier coverage in the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia, is assessed using Corona KH-4B satellite photographs for 1968–1971, Landsat 7 ETM+data for 1999–2002, and ALOS/PRISM and AVNIR data for 2006–2008. The four mountain regions investigated (Pskem, Ili-Kungöy, At-Bashy, and SE-Fergana) cover several distributed glacierized areas in the Tien Shan Mountain system, a region that is affected by highly variable local precipitation regimes. Over the 30 years investigated between ~ 1970 and ~ 2000, glacier area decreased by 19% in the Pskem region, 12% in the Ili-Kungöy region, 12% in the At-Bashy region, and 9% in the SE-Fergana region. In the last 7 years (~ 2000 to ~ 2007), glacier area shrank by 5% in the Pskem region, 4% in the Ili-Kungöy region, 4% in the At-Bashy region, and 0% in the SE-Fergana region. Glacier behavior has varied markedly in these regions. The most dramatic glacier shrinkage has occurred in the outer ranges of the Tien Shan Mountains. Recent glacier area loss has resulted from rising summer temperatures. Regional differences of glacier-area changes related to local climate conditions, to the altitudinal distribution of glacier areas, and to the relative proportion of glaciers in different size classes. The observed accelerated glacier shrinkage is expected to have two impacts on the more populated outer ranges: 1) water shortages during summer and 2) increased threat from glacier hazards such as glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and ice avalanches.