Determine the Priority of Industrial Investment in Conditions of Risk and Uncertainty: The Case Study Mazandaran Province

The expansion of production and development in the industrial sector is due to increase the investment on the activity of this sector. On one hand limits of the financial resources to the investment and high risk of investments in industrial and production activities, and by the other hand, the frequency of necessities and goals is inevitable to planning and priorities of investment. This study wants to provide optimize pattern by attention to the condition of risk and uncertainty and fluctuations in supply and demand market of industry, to determine priorities and economics feasibility to the investment in this sector. This study will examine its purpose in three scenarios (optimistic, pessimistic and uncertain market). The model used in this study is a fuzzy multicriteria decision method. This research has been made for Mazandaran Province from 2005 to 2010. The results of this research involve the investment criteria and specify the priority of these sectors. The final results of this study indicate that in conductions of uncertainty and volatility of market, the current pattern of investment in the industrial sector was not optimal and needs to be adjusted in the percentages and amounts of investment.