Title of article :
Weather-Based Index Insurance Pricing- Canonical Vine Copula Function Approach
Author/Authors :
Torabi, S Department of Agricultural Economics - Faculty of Agriculture - Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Islamic Republic of Iran , Dourandish, A Department of Agricultural Economics - Faculty of Agriculture - Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Islamic Republic of Iran , Daneshvar, M Department of Agricultural Economics - Faculty of Agriculture - Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Islamic Republic of Iran , Kianirad, A Department of Agricultural Economics - Agricultural Planning, Economic and Rural Development Research Institute (APERDRI), Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran , Mohammadi, H Department of Agricultural Economics - Faculty of Agriculture - Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Islamic Republic of Iran
Abstract :
Gardening products, like apple, are exposed to a variety of risks caused by unfavorable
weather conditions. This kind of risk is unavoidable, but manageable. Agricultural
insurance is an effective scheme in weather risk management. Nevertheless, current
insurance schemes have challenges, such as high transaction costs, and problems caused
by asymmetric information, i.e. adverse selection and moral hazard. Therefore, this study
aimed to present an appropriate insurance scheme for apple production in Damavand,
the so-called “weather-based index insurance”. In this regard, the information on apple
yield and weather variables was collected between 1987-2016, from Iranian Agriculture
Jihad Organization and the local meteorological station. The dependency structure
between apple yield and weather variables was investigated by C-Vine Copula as a joint
distribution to compute the expected loss. Then, according to the expected loss, weatherbased
index insurance premium was measured. The premium amount was equal to
Thousand Rials 32,546.11 in the crop year 2016-17, which is different from the current
insurance premium. This difference is because of the distinct nature of the two insurance
schemes and the imperative and official mode of current insurance scheme.
Farsi abstract :
توليدات باغي مانند توليد سيب، در معرض انواع ريسك هاي ناشي از شرايط نامساعد آب و هوايي
قرار دارند. اين نوع ريسك ها عنصري گريزناپذير ولي قابل مديريت هستند. بيمه كشاورزي از جمله
برنامه هاي موثر در مديريت ريسك آب و هوايي است. اما طرح هاي فعلي بيمه چالش هايي نظير هزينه
مبادله بالا و مسائل ناشي از اطلاعات نامتقارن يعني انتخاب نامناسب و مخاطرات اخلاقي را دارند
بنابراين مطالعه حاضر يك برنامه بيمه اي مناسب براي توليد سيب دماوند را ارائه مي دهد كه معروف به
بيمه شاخص آب و هوايي است. در اين راستا، اطلاعات مربوط به عملكرد سيب و متغيرهاي آب و
5911 از سازمان جهادكشاورزي و ايستگاه هواشناسي جمع آوري گرديد. ساختار وابستگي بين متغيرهاي عملكرد محصول سيب و متغيرهاي آب و هوايي با استفاده از مفصل
مويرگي كانوني به عنوان توزيع توام براي تعيين خسارت مورد انتظار بررسي شد. سپس با استفاده از
خسارت مورد انتظار حق بيمه بيمه شاخص آب و هوايي اندازه گيري شد. مقدار حق بيمه در سال زراعي 1395-96 برابر32546/11
هزار ريال به دست آمد، كه از مقدار حق بيمه بيمه فعلي متفاوت است. اين
اختلاف به دليل ماهيت متفاوت دو نوع بيمه و حالت دستوري و اداري بودن طرح فعلي بيمه است.
Keywords :
Expected loss , Damavand , Bayesian method , Apple , Adverse weather