Analysis of the effect of isolation on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling approach (R1)

COVID-19 was declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020, after the global cases and mortalities in more than 100 countries surpassed 100 000 and 3 000, respectively. Because of the role of isolation in disease spread and transmission, a system of differential equations were developed to analyse the effect of isolation on the dynamics of COVID-19. The validity of the model was confirmed by establishing the positivity and boundedness of its solutions. Equilibria analysis was conducted, and both zero and nonzero equilibria were obtained. The effective and basic reproductive ratios were also derived and used to analyze the stability of the equilibria. The disease-free equilibrium is stable both locally and globally if the reproduction number is less than one; otherwise, it is the disease-endemic equilibrium that is stable locally and globally. A numerical simulation was carried out to justify the theoretical results and to visualise the effects of various parameters on the dynamics of the disease. Results from the simulations indicated that COVID-19 incidence and prevalence depended majorly on the effective contact rate and per capita probability of detecting infection at the asymptomatic stage, respectively. The policy implication of the result is that disease surveillance and adequate testing are important to combat pandemics.