Dust Emission Calculation and Forecasting using CALPUFF and GCM models

Dust is an important atmospheric phenomena that occurs in spring and summer in many regions, including Iran and its neighboring countries. Considered one of the most important challenges of the last century, this phenomenon occurs on a global scale in arid and semi-arid regions. Because of changes in climate and vegetation as well as progressive processes of soil erosion and the disturbances resulting from them, the sensitivity of regions to rapid erosion will have important reactions on the region’s climate and desertification. Therefore, the current research investigated the concentration and distribution of fine dust under the influence of meteorological parameters using the GCM climate model and attempted to determine the effect of climate change on the concentration of the relevant pollutant in the coming years. In this study, the CALPUFF model considered the temporal and spatial effects of weather conditions on the transfer, transformation, and removal of atmospheric pollutants. The emission rate of the PM10 pollutant was estimated. The results indicated that the increase in greenhouse gas emissions and changes in climate variables in the near future will cause the distribution of suspended particles one of the important pollutants to increase significantly. The results also revealed a significant relationship between the degradation of air quality and the trend of air warming during the period 2046-2065.