The effects of climate change on the distribution and management of Picea abies in southern Scandinavia

The distributions of Picea abies (L.) Karst. and other European forest trees have continuously changed since the last glaciation. Static and dynamic bioclimatic simulation models are used to estimate the degree of climatic control operating on the southern Scandinavian range limits of Picea during the last 1000 years. The results show that the range limit has begun to track climate change more closely than in the past, and a future projection predicts a rapid northward contraction of the present limit. Contracting ranges track climate change more closely than do expanding ranges that are limited by seed dispersal. The physiological mechanism of the climatic control is unclear, but Picea planted beyond its current climatic range limit was seriously damaged during a recent storm. Planting trees beyond their natural climatic range limits can only be advised in areas that become suitable for colonization under a changed climate.