Relation between portal pressure response to pharmacotherapy and risk of recurrent variceal haemorrhage in patients with cirrhosis

In patients with variceal bleeding as a complication of hepatic cirrhosis, propranolol therapy reduces the risk of recurrent variceal haemorrhage. However, the relation between portal pressure response to pharmacological treatment and clinical events has not been well defined. This relation was prospectively investigated in 69 cirrhotic patients receiving continued propranolol therapy after an episode of variceal bleeding. Hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) was measured before and at 3 months of continued drug therapy. At 3 months HVPG had fallen by 20% or more in 25 patients. During follow-up of 28 (SD 17) months rebleeding occurred in 2 of these 25 patients compared with 23 of 44 who had lesser reductions in HVPG. Cumulative probability of rebleeding at 1, 2, and 3 years was 4%, 9%, and 9% in patients with a decrease in HVPG succeeds or equal to20%, and 28%, 39%, and 66% in patients with a decrease in HVPG <20% (p<0·001, log-rank test). On multivariate analysis, a decrease in HVPG succeeds or equal to20% was the only independent predictor of rebleeding (relative risk 0·09, 95% Cl 0·02-0·41. Of the 8 patients in whom the HVPG fell to 12 mm Hg or less, none rebled. This study suggests that measurement of the HVPG response to pharmacotherapy will provide useful prognostic information on the long-term risk of variceal rebleeding.