Author/Authors :
Bali-Lashak، Aref نويسنده PhD, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Iran Bali-Lashak, Aref , Zare، Mehdi نويسنده PhD, Seismological Research Center, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Iran Zare, Mehdi , Andalib، Arash نويسنده MSc, Seismological Research Center, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Iran Andalib, Arash , Pourbadakhsh، Kazem نويسنده PhD Student, Seismological Research Center, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Iran Pourbadakhsh, Kazem , Radan، Yaser نويسنده PhD, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran Radan, Yaser
Abstract :
In this paper, we introduce a new approach to prepare the forecasting of earthquakes with magnitudes higher than a threshold level. This method can recognize the worldʹs dual seismicity zones, where an earthquake in one zone acts as a precursor to other events in some other zone(s). To do so, we first, divide the entire global plane into well-defined sub-regions, and then create a matrix whose different cells correspond to different spatial-temporal seismic attitudes. In this matrix, each cell identifies the total number of events occurred in that sub-region within that specified period of time. The method, then proposes a procedure to measure the possibility or likelihood of an event in those regions by looking through the current situation of the reference region. On the other hand, the method can forecast future status of the reference region by searching the database of earthquakes, which have occurred already, and this would further result in prediction of other double-seismicity regions. Validity of the new forecasting approach is confirmed by the last yearʹs events data recorded in NEIC catalogue.
