چكيده لاتين :
Urban settlementsand their connectivity will be the dominant driver of global change during the twenty-first century. In an attempt to assess the effects of urban growth on available land for other uses and its associated impacts on environmental parameters, we modeled the change in the extent of Gorgan City, the capital of the Golestan Province of Iran. Weused Landsat TM and ETM+ imageryofthe area and evaluated possible scenarios of future urban spraw1 using the SLEUTH
method. The SLEUTH is a cellular automaton dynamic urban-growth model that uses geospatial data themes to simulate and forecast change in the extent of urban areas. Wesuccessfully modeled and forecasted the likely change in extent of the Gorgan City using slope, land use, exclusion zone, transportation network,and hillshade predictor variables. The results illustratedthe utilityof modeling in explaining the spatial pattern of urban growth.Wealso showedthe methodto beuseful in providing timely information to decision makers for adopting preventive measures against unwanted change in extent and location of the built-up areas with in in the city limits.
