كليدواژه :
Fuzzy logic , Event tree , Probability theory , Uncertainties , Dam risk analysis
چكيده لاتين :
Risk Analysis is a principal part of risk management in design and operation of hydro systems. For
the first time in ICOLD congress in 2000, risk and risk analysis were discussed as pivotal topics in
dam engineering; however, their application in aviation, nuclear, and marine industries goes back to
the middle of the past century and in dam engineering to the early 1980s. A conventional method of
evaluating failure probability is the use of probability theory in event tree. Due to the complexity and
uncertainty of the failure causing events in dams, assigning probabilities to these events is a matter of
engineering judgment. In order to make better use of engineering judgments in combination with
engineering science, many attempts have been made in the field of dam risk analysis. A flexible
approach used to delineate uncertainties in many fields including risk analysis is the fuzzy logic. In
addition to its benefits in dealing with uncertainties, fuzzy logic makes possible the use of ambiguous,
imprecise, qualitative and linguistic information as good as quantitative variables. Also human, social
and environmental consequences are quantifiable and comparison of results with acceptable risks
becomes easier and more meaningful. Also, the analyst can evaluate both the input data and the risk of
an event directly, using linguistic uncertainties common for stating the risk. This paper, after
enumerating difficulties and deficits of conventional methods of dam risk analysis due to floods,
describes the fuzzy approach to this analysis and finally presents a simple event tree and fuzzy system
for risk analysis of 1000 years flood in Karkhe dam.
