UNCERTAINTY IN POWER ECONOMIC OF IRAN'S HYDROPOWER PLANT

Economic evaluation of hydropower projects and studies of optimum operation of energy supply system in IRAN need basic parameters such as discount rate, inflation rate, fuel price, capital cost, firm energy, secondary energy, external cost of energy and so on. Uncertainty in these parameters is caused uncertainty in economic evaluation especially in determining of installed capacity and optimum activity level of hydropower plant. In this paper first uncertainty in economic parameter would be described. Then uncertainty in technical parameters (electricity supply system parameters) would be explained. Then effects of variation of the parameters on results of power economic studies would be analyzed. Finally it would be proposed some comments for decreasing the effects of the uncertainty on results of power economic studies of hydropower plant in IRAN.