R69-5 The Statistics of Discrete-Event Simulation

This paper discusses the problems of simulating systems in which some random behavior exists. The title refers to "discrete-event simulation," but this remains undefined and unemphasized throughout most of the paper. (The expression refers to svstems in which events, such as customer arrivals, occur at a countable set of points on the continuous time axis–this as opposed to a continuous-event simulation in which important properties of the system must be accounted for over a continuum in a given time interval.) The authors trace the elements of a typical experiment and identify the statistical problems along with a discussion of their possible solutions. They isolate a number of frequently overlooked considerations in the random input process, particularly the independence of adjacent samples. Similarly, in estimating system performance, the problem of correlated outputs must be solved. In short, in any simulation, the input data and the system structure must be understood and examined carefully.