A Probabilistic Approach to Photovoltaic Generator Performance Prediction

This paper describes a methodology to predict the performance of photovoltic (PV) generator based on long term climatological data and expected cell performance. The methodology uses long term historical data on insolation to calculate the probability distribution function parameters for each hour of a typical day of any season, week or day. Once the probability distribution function parameters are calculated, they are used to evaluate the predicted hourly, daily, weekly and seasonal capacity factors of a particular design of a PV panel/array at a particular site. Long term insolation data from Sterling, Virginia have been utilized with Solarex SX-110 panel designs to predict PV array performance.