Uncertainty Aspects in Lole Calculations for Two Interconnected Systems

This paper extends the basic techniques used for considering the uncertainty associated with the system parameters of a single area system to two interconnected systems and presents an approximate method for evaluating the effects of these uncertainties on the LOLE of two interconnected systems. The effect of uncertainty in tie line parameters on the LOLE index is examined. Equations are derived for calculating the mean and variance of the LOLE in each system under the different uncertainties. The methods are compared by application to a hypothetical system and to the IEEE Reliability Test System.