Some Aspects of Modeling Petroleum Utilization in the United States

Previous efforts in modeling petroleum utilization in the United States are reviewed and critiqued. A new model, based on the system dynamics approach of Forrester, is formulated and used to investigate the effects of different tax incentive and R & D funding policies on both the short- and long-term utilization of petroleum. The present model is more viable than its predecessors since it takes into account the inherent nonlinear, dynamic, feedback, and time-lag character of energy usage. Further, it permits greater flexibility in performing policy analysis and tradeoffs.