A New Method for the Evaluation of Expected Energy Generation and Loss of Load Probability

This paper describes a new method of calculating loss of load probability, expected energy generation and production cost for each type and size of unit in an electric utility. The method uses hourly loads, or any suitable time interval, for a given period. The method consists in obtaining the frequency distribution of equivalent loads by convolving the generating units in an economic merit order of loading. The convolution process is achieved by suitable addition of the statistical moments of hourly loads and machine outages. The method can simulate partial loading as well as multistate representation of generating units. The proposed method is applied to a modified IEEE Reliability Test System and the energy production cost and loss of load probability are calculated and compared with those obtained by other methods.