The Peak Load Forecasting Afterwards Its Intensive Reduction

This paper points to some forecasting problems, especially the one which occur after some sudden, intensive and durable reduction of peak load. In such circumstances, decreasing peak load trend can last for several years, causing the problems by appliance of classical, trend-based extrapolation forecasting methods. The paper presents three alternative methods for the peak load forecasting, developed in order to eliminate, avoid or reduce these problems. The methods are illustrated here by some examples, in which the peak load value has been reduced by changed tariff system for electricity sale. However, the methods can be applied also in the case of any other-sudden and intensive-influence which could reduce the peak load value in an local area or wider region.