Optical fiber splice loss predictions from one-way OTDR measurements based on a probability model

It is well known that one-way optical time-domain reflectometry (OTDR) measurement contains a false contribution to the splice loss due to statistical fluctuations in light scattering among fibers. Using a large amount of collected data over splice losses from field installations, a two-dimensional probability distribution function with the actual splice loss and the one-way measured OTDR discontinuity as variables was fitted to the data. The five parameters of the chosen probability distribution were determined numerically from the observed data. The probability of keeping the splice loss below a target value based on the observed one-way OTDR reading was calculated and can be displayed in a curve or a table of values. The agreement between theory and experimental values is satisfactory for standard match clad single-mode fibers measured at 1.3-μm wavelength