Modelling the relationship between developed equity markets and emerging equity markets

This study examines the dynamic linkages between the major equity markets of the world (USA, Japan and Britain) and the emerging markets of South-East Europe (Croatia, Slovenia and Hungary). In particular, we discuss possible differences between their interdependences during the period of the dot-com speculative bubble, as well as during the period of the existing financial crisis caused by deflation of the global “real-estate” bubble. For the purpose of this study, we perform three types of analysis. Firstly, we investigate the long-run relationships between indices by using the Johansen cointegration test. Secondly, we investigate both the short-term and long-term movements in equity markets, modelling them with a VECM. Thirdly, we test for causality between the series by using the Granger causality test. A conclusion is finally drawn that the South-East Europe equity markets have become more integrated with global markets and that they offer limited potential in diversifying the risks.