Decision theory for Reliability engineers and Reliability Managers

Reliability engineers are quite often focused on mission effectiveness, which is the most concise definition of Reliability. Reliability engineers have to understand causal relationships and have to make numerous decisions that affect future actions. In this role they impact a wide range of resources, schedules, and decisions made by others and are at the mercy of those in authority who make decisions that affect them. Causal inferences and statistical base rates have to be separated. Beliefs and cognitive biases have to be checked both introspectively and externally. Reliability Managers have to make numerous decisions on funding allocations, resource commitments, personnel and strategic development. Although it is seldom that individuals working in these roles take the time to explore the many influences, stimuli, biases and motives that drive their decision making actions. Reliability practitioners are somewhat unique in the context of decision making, because Reliability engineers and Reliability managers deal with probabilities and stochastic processes, which are not the common language of the average decision maker. Probability is not intuitive and this in itself creates an opportunity for decision error. Possibility, plausibility and probability have to be delineated when confronted with the need to make a decision. It is important to realize the way we perceive the challenges that confront us, and understand the underlying mechanisms that compel us to make one decision over the other. This paper and the accompanying presentation strives to help the decision maker become more aware of these influential factors and as a result, enable them to make better decisions. This is not a proposed prescriptive or formula based approach, rather it advocates a Bayesian thought process. Using past decision making as a baseline and introducing some new ideas about learning, thinking and ideation that if incorporated will change the way you approach future decision making. - nextricably this will raise questions regarding how others around you make decisions and result in a new sense of awareness. The underlying fundamental precept here is that all change stems from awareness, and this paper strives to increase that awareness.