A new point estimate method for probabilistic load flow with correlated variables including wind farms

Author

Can Chen ; Wenchuan Wu ; Boming Zhang ; Singh, Chaman

Author_Institution

Dept. of Electr. Eng., Tsinghua Univ., Beijing, China

fYear

2014

fDate

27-31 July 2014

Firstpage

1

Lastpage

5

Abstract

In this paper, a novel probabilistic load flow (PLF) method that combines Nataf transformation with Zhao´s point estimate method (PEM) is proposed. The new method can deal with correlated non-normal input random variables (RVs) in PLF evaluation with improved accuracy and less computation time than existing methods. The proposed method is applied to a modified IEEE 118-bus test system with wind farms. A comparison with Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) using correlated variables is presented. In the end, the sensitivity analysis considering different correlation coefficients of wind speed is shown.

Keywords

load flow; probability; wind power plants; MCS; Monte Carlo Simulation; Nataf transformation; PLF method; RVs; Zhao point estimate method; correlated nonnormal input random variables; modified IEEE 118-bus test system; probabilistic load flow method; sensitivity analysis; wind farms; wind speed; Correlation coefficient; Load flow; Load modeling; Probabilistic logic; Standards; Wind farms; Wind speed; Nataf transformation; point estimate method; probabilistic load flow; wind power;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

PES General Meeting | Conference & Exposition, 2014 IEEE

Conference_Location

National Harbor, MD

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/PESGM.2014.6939141

Filename

6939141