Evaluation of nodal reliability risk in a deregulated power system with photovoltaic power penetration

Owing to the intermittent characteristic of solar radiation, power system reliability may be affected with high photovoltaic (PV) power penetration. To reduce large variation of PV power, additional system balancing reserve would be needed. In deregulated power systems, deployment of reserves and customer reliability requirements are correlated with energy and reserve prices. Therefore a new method should be developed to evaluate the impacts of PV power on customer reliability and system reserve deployment in the new environment. In this study, a method based on the pseudo-sequential Monte Carlo simulation technique has been proposed to evaluate the reserve deployment and customers´ nodal reliability with high PV power penetration. The proposed method can effectively model the chronological aspects and stochastic characteristics of PV power and system operation with high computation efficiency. An auto-regressive and moving average model has also been developed for simulating the chronological characteristics of the solar radiation. Customers´ reliability preferences have been considered in the generation and reserve deployment. Moreover, the correlation between PV power and load has been considered in the proposed method. Nodal reliability indices and reserve deployment have been evaluated by applying the proposed method to the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers reliability test system.