DocumentCode :
1422481
Title :
Uncertainty, prediction, and the unexpected
Author :
Greenstein, Shane
Volume :
18
Issue :
4
fYear :
1998
Firstpage :
76
Lastpage :
77
Abstract :
There is a common (and I think, accurate) perception that today´s high-technology markets contain an irreducible amount of uncertainty. It´s easy to explain part of this uncertainty. Few people are considered experts on many technologies. Thus, most high-tech watchers are frequently surprised, disappointed, and delighted by commercial developments in fields about which they know almost nothing. That said, more than just lack of expertise affects uncertainty. Uncertainty has comprised the industry zeitgeist for decades. Many young programmers living on Internet time may not believe that, but it´s no less true today than it was in the past. Only the sources of uncertainty change in each era-the presence of uncertainty does not. Previously observers associated disruption and instability with the introduction of, for example, notebook computers, PDAs, networked computers, laser printers, PCs, minicomputers, or a range of other technologies
Keywords :
DP industry; economics; commercial developments; disruption; high-technology markets; instability; uncertainty; Commercialization; Computer networks; Internet; Operating systems; Personal communication networks; Personal digital assistants; Printers; Programming profession; Prototypes; Uncertainty;
fLanguage :
English
Journal_Title :
Micro, IEEE
Publisher :
ieee
ISSN :
0272-1732
Type :
jour
DOI :
10.1109/40.710873
Filename :
710873
Link To Document :
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