DocumentCode :
1481793
Title :
The conundrum of software estimation models
Author :
Ferens, Daniel V.
Author_Institution :
Res. Lab., Wright-Patterson AFB, OH, USA
Volume :
14
Issue :
3
fYear :
1999
fDate :
3/1/1999 12:00:00 AM
Firstpage :
23
Lastpage :
29
Abstract :
There are many sophisticated models and methods for estimating the size, cost, and schedule of software projects. However, the ability to accurately estimate software cost, size, or schedule is still dubious. In general, the predictive accuracy of models for estimating software development cost and schedule has not been shown to be better than “within 25 percent of actual cost or schedule, about one half of the time”, especially for Department of Defense software efforts. The same is true for software size estimating models and methods, although there are some studies that have shown superior results. For software support (or maintenance) cost estimation, no model has been demonstrated to be accurate. This paper presents a summary of efforts performed to date which demonstrate the accuracy (or lack thereof) of software models. The results of several studies in the areas of software development cost and schedule estimation, size estimation, and support cost estimation are presented to show what these models can and cannot do. Some ideas for improvement are also presented, including the results of some studies which may lead to a resolution of the accuracy conundrum which currently exists
Keywords :
modelling; software cost estimation; software maintenance; accuracy conundrum; predictive accuracy; project cost; project schedule; project size; software development cost; software estimation models; software projects; software support cost estimation; Accuracy; Application software; Costs; Databases; Equations; Laboratories; Life estimation; Predictive models; Programming; Software maintenance;
fLanguage :
English
Journal_Title :
Aerospace and Electronic Systems Magazine, IEEE
Publisher :
ieee
ISSN :
0885-8985
Type :
jour
DOI :
10.1109/62.750425
Filename :
750425
Link To Document :
بازگشت