Title :
Modelling the SARS epidemic by a lattice-based Monte-Carlo simulation
Author :
Fang, Haiping ; Chen, Jixiu ; Hu, Jun
Author_Institution :
Shanghai Inst. of Appl. Phys., Chinese Acad. of Sci., Shanghai
Abstract :
We have analyzed the SARS data and the effect of the control measure in HongKong, based on a spatial Monte-Carlo model (SEIR) with susceptibles, exposed (latent), infective, and recovered. The SARS data can be well fit by numerical simulations. The control measure is effective to decreasing the transmission by reducing the contact rate. The average value of the reproductive number is consistent with many of the previous models
Keywords :
Monte Carlo methods; diseases; microorganisms; physiological models; SARS epidemic modelling; exposed individuals; infective individuals; lattice-based Monte-Carlo simulation; recovered individuals; spatial Monte-Carlo model; susceptible individuals; Analytical models; Data analysis; Data mining; Diseases; Genetics; Mathematics; Numerical simulation; Personnel; Physics; Stochastic processes;
Conference_Titel :
Engineering in Medicine and Biology Society, 2005. IEEE-EMBS 2005. 27th Annual International Conference of the
Conference_Location :
Shanghai
Print_ISBN :
0-7803-8741-4
DOI :
10.1109/IEMBS.2005.1616239
