An improved grey model for forecasting spot and long term electricity price

With the deepening reform to power industries, power systems are going to gradually open the demand side and the power consumers have to face the changes of their role in the market, and make a preliminary long-term forecasting for the electricity prices. In order to consider the relations between the spot market and the long-term contract market, this paper builds a multi-electricity price grey model to comprehensive forecast the prices of the 2 markets; further researches the structure of the background value, and improves the multi-electricity price grey model; and introduces the residual error, the related grade, the mean variance ratio and the little probability of error as test indexes. The test results show that the multi-electricity price grey forecasting model and its improved model have better accuracy, and the improved model has stronger adaptability and extends the application range.