Safety of airport approach prediction using a skill - and rule-based pilot model

This paper introduces a new computational pilot performance model that has been developed for predicting the safety of airport approaches. The creation of the pilot model is based on the frequency and percentage of accident associated with Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) causal category by type of operation. The pilot model is a combination of a skill-based and rule-based model. The main hypothesis within the model is that the skill-based portion consists of the pilot time delay and control precision, the rule-based portion includes the control rules which are acquired for Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs). The pilot model integrated with an environment model consisting of a model of airplane, aircraft dynamics, and flight environment forms Man-Machine-Environment Safety Analysis System (MME-SAS). A computer simulation of MME-SAS is developed and tested. The results show that the MME-SAS can be used to investigate the cause of human errors and aircraft accident.