Risk assessment on agricultural products by inter-regional flow estimation in disaster

In most countries, agricultural products are produced in countryside. When a disaster attacks these producing districts, the influence on urban areas as large consumer cities might be able to become serious. Moreover, agricultural products have space (producing district) deviation, time (shipping period) deviation, and the influence on consumer cities may change greatly with the developmental time term of a disaster. In such a situation, the existence value of a district with possibility as a source of supply becomes more important. This research aims at acquiring fundamental knowledge about the risk management of food supply by measuring the turn volume before and after a disaster, taking into account the situation where a part of supply of agricultural products becomes difficulty according to a disaster.