Title :
Forecasting electrical parameters of mass-produced LED luminaire using the Monte Carlo method
Author :
Witt, W. ; Stankovic, A.V.
Author_Institution :
Gen. Electr.-Lighting Nela Park, Cleveland, OH, USA
Abstract :
This paper describes the various input variables of an LED system (electronic driver and LED), such as component behavior, tolerance, thermal effects, and manufacturing variability - which all contribute to important end-use system parameters such as watts and total lumen output. A mathematical model with probability functions is constructed in Microsoft Excel to compute electrical parameters. Sensitivity analysis and parameter forecasting is then performed via the Monte Carlo method, using the Crystal Ball add-on software package by Oracle. Forecasted results for power are then compared and verified against test results of mass production parts.
Keywords :
Monte Carlo methods; driver circuits; electronic engineering computing; light emitting diodes; sensitivity analysis; LED system; Microsoft Excel; Monte Carlo method; Oracle; component behavior; crystal ball add-on software package; electrical parameter forecasting; electronic driver; end-use system parameters; manufacturing variability; mass production parts; mass-produced LED luminaire; mathematical model; probability functions; sensitivity analysis; thermal effects; total lumen output; Crystals; Forecasting; Light emitting diodes; Monte Carlo methods; Predictive modeling; Probability distribution; Resistors; Sensitivity analysis; LED characteristics; LED drivers; Monte Carlo; forecasting; power electronics; predictive modeling; sensitivity analysis; tolerance;
Conference_Titel :
Industry Applications Society Annual Meeting, 2014 IEEE
Conference_Location :
Vancouver, BC
DOI :
10.1109/IAS.2014.6978425
