Investigating the causality of potential collisions on the airport surface

→ Model development was an internal initiative built on collision potential metrics developed for the FAA → The FAA´s Office of Aviation Safety (AVS) has a mission to identify emergent risks so mitigations can be developed • Increased traffic levels, NEXTGEN Operational Improvements, and changes to aircraft fleet mix (more big aircraft) could all effect risk • Models for changes in risk are necessary to plan mitigations • All such models are hard to substantiate due to rarity of accidents → Goal of study was to find credible model to estimate rates of severe interactions from discoverable airport parameters • Simpler models preferred • Stable parameters required for model to be predictive → Stretch goal: Gain insight into root causes by finding properties with most effect on rates.