DocumentCode
1817561
Title
Bayesian non-parametric simulation of hazard functions
Author
Belyi, Dmitriy ; Popova, Elmira ; Morton, David ; Damien, Paul
Author_Institution
Oper. Res. & Ind. Eng., Univ. of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA
fYear
2009
fDate
13-16 Dec. 2009
Firstpage
475
Lastpage
482
Abstract
In Bayesian non-parametric statistics, the extended gamma process can be used to model the class of monotonic hazard functions. However, numerical evaluations of the posterior process are very difficult to compute for realistic sample sizes. To overcome this, we use Monte Carlo methods introduced by Laud, Smith, and Damien (1996) to simulate from the posterior process. We show how these methods can be used to approximate the increasing failure rate of an item, given observed failures and censored times. We then use the results to compute the optimal maintenance schedule under a specified maintenance policy.
Keywords
Bayes methods; Monte Carlo methods; failure analysis; hazards; reliability theory; Bayesian nonparametric simulation; Monte Carlo methods; extended gamma process; item failure rate; maintenance policy; monotonic hazard functions; posterior process; Bayesian methods; Computational modeling; Distributed computing; Failure analysis; Hazards; Industrial engineering; Operations research; State-space methods; Statistics; Weibull distribution;
fLanguage
English
Publisher
ieee
Conference_Titel
Simulation Conference (WSC), Proceedings of the 2009 Winter
Conference_Location
Austin, TX
Print_ISBN
978-1-4244-5770-0
Type
conf
DOI
10.1109/WSC.2009.5429359
Filename
5429359
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