Econometrics Forecasting the Marine Economic Development in Jiangsu Province

Marine economy is playing an increasingly important role in the national economy and social development. According to Box-Jenkins theory and ARIMA (p, d, q) dynamic model, the time series of the marine economy in Jiangsu province was identified, simulated and predicted. The results of time series showed: After stationary identification, the time series of the residual is significantly white noise series. A more appropriate ARIMA model is established which provides a reference tool for the short-term prediction of GOP in Jiangsu Province. This ARIMA method was perfect in math, had a high applicable value, and offered a new way for predicting the development trend and prospect of marine economy in Jiangsu province. And at last the countermeasures for its optimization and upgrade are put forward from marine industry with the aim for accelerating marine industry optimization and upgrade.