Forecast Models and Their Comparison on Tourism Passenger of Gansu Province

It is useful to exactly forecast the tourism passenger in tourism layout and management. The linear regression model is often used in passenger in tourism layout. But its precision is worth discussing. Quantitative analysis is made to the four forecast models in a case study of the tourism passenger of Gansu province. The research suggests that the linear regression model has the lowest precision in the four models, the Grey model of GM(1,1) is suitable for the data of 3~6 years, and the exponent model fits for the data of longer series.