Spending profile analysis for NASA integrated project assessments

Parametric cost estimating tools and processes often estimate cost totals without spreading them across a project schedule by year. Government oversight and constrained budget profiles make understanding cost and cost drivers on an annual basis essential in order to see the direct effects of changes to cost profiles. An efficient, data-driven, transparent approach to cost spreading that can be calibrated to internal data is valuable for organizations seeking to control costs associated with proposal production without jeopardizing cost estimate rigor and credibility. Some parametric tools are available that offer cost spreading capabilities for the WBS elements they estimate. For many organizations, however, historical spending profiles from internal data indicate that a tailored approach to cost spreading is better to produce realistic annual budget requirements. This paper addresses classic actuarial methods for estimating the pace of spending from historical spending profiles, given a total cost estimate and a project schedule. The result is an excel-based tool that allows data-driven dollar-spreading with relative ease. We present results and the way forward.