Probabilistic design analysis: methods and applications

Research was initiated using a probabilistic design analysis (PDA) tool called NESSUS. Another method was examined for determining a response surface for probabilistic analysis independent of NESSUS. These methods were applied to a structural payload adapter to demonstrate application and representative benefits and costs of PDA. The primary differences between the methods were observed in accuracy and efficiency. A basic approach consists in applying simplistic preliminary PDA methods, which can then be refined with more complex methods. The project was estimated to cost about 25% in addition to the traditional stress analysis, with a large benefit potential if, for example, PDA results are used to expand the component´s capability range. These products of the pilot project will provide a better basis for deciding when to use PDA and how to do so with less trial and error