DocumentCode
1973266
Title
A New Model between Stock Valuation Index and Volatility of Stock Price
Author
He, Chengying ; Xu, Qinghzen ; Liu, Ying
Author_Institution
Inst. of China Security Market, Zhejiang Univ. of Finance & Econ., Hangzhou, China
fYear
2010
fDate
22-23 June 2010
Firstpage
479
Lastpage
482
Abstract
Evaluation index are long been thought as very accurately reflect stock price by people in China. In this paper, we build theory models to study the relationship between volume, P/B (Price-to-Book value Ratio), P/S (Price-to-Sale Ratio) and P/CF (Price-to-Cash Flow Ratio) and stock market volatility. In current China stock market, individual stock price volatility is a complicated function. The resulting stock price function has four variables as input: volume, PB, PS, PC. In this paper, we present a new mathematical model to simulate stock price volatility. We applied the new model to a stock through empirical analysis. Our conclusions are as follows: (1) The volatility of stock price is a function of parameters of PB, PS and PC. (2) Our new model can predict future stock price changes. (3) PB, PS and PC has positive effect on stock price. Moreover, this paper proposed some potential methods and system suggestions for the further improvement of stock price pridiction in China stock market. Overal, the empirical analysis results show that the new model can enhance the volatility forecasting ability of individual stock in china stock market.
Keywords
forecasting theory; pricing; stock markets; China; price-to-book value ratio; price-to-cash flow ratio; price-to-sale ratio; stock market volatility; stock price change; stock price volatility; stock valuation index; volatility forecasting ability; Biological system modeling; Cost accounting; Forecasting; Indexes; Mathematical model; Predictive models; Solid modeling; Volatility; stock price; stock valuation;
fLanguage
English
Publisher
ieee
Conference_Titel
Intelligent Computing and Cognitive Informatics (ICICCI), 2010 International Conference on
Conference_Location
Kuala Lumpur
Print_ISBN
978-1-4244-6640-5
Electronic_ISBN
978-1-4244-6641-2
Type
conf
DOI
10.1109/ICICCI.2010.122
Filename
5566054
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