Application on dynamic combination forecast model based on the B-spline curve and GM(2, 1)

Emergency has strong randomicity, and will often present fewer research data sample or absence of data in certain emergency prediction research process. We research the case using cubic B-spline interpolation in engineering technology and the GM (2, 1) forecasting model, and set up the dynamic combination forecast model based on cubic B-spline curve and the GM (2, 1), which makes up for the lack of data on high quality, and also make the prediction results reflecting the characteristics of dynamic local and global. We makes an empirical analysis using the model lightning index in Guangdong province, the results show that the level erroneous recognition is 11% the predicted results ,the regionalization of forecasting disaster index is consistent with the practical .