A stochastic model for simulation and forecasting of emergencies in the area of Milano

Author

Micheletti, Alessandra ; Morale, Daniela ; Rapati, Daniele ; Nolli, Paola

Author_Institution

Dipt. di Mat., Univ. degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy

fYear

2010

fDate

18-20 Feb. 2010

Firstpage

1

Lastpage

6

Abstract

In this paper a method for estimating and forecasting the demand of ambulance service in the area of Milano is presented. We assume that time and location of an emergency service request are outcomes of a space-time marked point process. Thus we estimate the intensity of the process on the basis of the records of specific emergency call history over 3 years (2005-2007). The mean number of emergencies occurring daily is also related, via a linear regression model, to some exogenous variables, which can be measured and used for the forecasting procedure. Simulation results based on such estimates and real data observed during 2008 are presented.

Keywords

emergency services; forecasting theory; hospitals; regression analysis; stochastic processes; Milano; ambulance service; emergency forecasting; emergency service; linear regression model; space time marked point process; stochastic model; Buildings; Computer errors; Hospitals; Instruments; Predictive models; Process planning; Stochastic processes; Surgery; Surges; System testing;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Health Care Management (WHCM), 2010 IEEE Workshop on

Conference_Location

Venice

Print_ISBN

978-1-4244-4997-2

Electronic_ISBN

978-1-4244-4998-9

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/WHCM.2010.5441259

Filename

5441259