Snow disaster risk assessment based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation

The Inner Mongolian pastoral area in China was selected as a case area in this paper. Firstly, the snow disaster risk assessment index system was established. When building the snow disaster risk assessment index system, disaster inducing factor, disaster-formative environment and disaster-affected body were comprehensively considered. Secondly, the factor weights were determined with fuzzy Borda number method. When the membership was determined, fuzzy Borda number was sequentially calculated through fuzzy frequency statistic, and then the factor weights were obtained through normalization process of fuzzy Borda number. Thirdly, the snow disaster risk assessment model based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation was established. Considering the random of snow disaster´s occurrence and the fuzziness of snow disaster risk assessment, fuzzy math method was introduced in the study of snow disaster risk assessment. Finally, statistical validation was made with fuzzy approach degree method. Case study showed that the result of risk assessment from this model was basically consistent with the actual situation, indicating the high accuracy.