Spatial uncertainty analysis for water distribution under fragility curves

On September 21, 1999, the Chi-Chi Earthquake occurred in central part of Taiwan. The earthquake caused over 10,000 buildings collapsing and over 2,300 people dead, and ninety-two fire events within twenty-four hours. The water supply facilities were also damaged seriously by the earthquake, and couldn´t provide industry using and fire-fighting using water. The post-earthquake fires can cause severe damage, especially in an urban area, such as the 1994 Northridge Earthquake and 1995 Kobe Earthquake. Therefore, the reliability of water supply system after earthquake should be estimated. It´s can help to prevent water shortage caused by earthquake. In order to predict the damage of water supply network after earthquake, the fragility curves should be derived. This study use the fragility curve which derived by regression analysis which was performed by repair rate and ground strain that was calculated by Permanent Ground Deformation (PGD) applied Strain Gage Rosettes method and Mohr´s circle.(CHANG and CHUNG 2008). Therefore, damaged points can be estimated through the damage ratio correspond to different earthquake intensity. Damaged points are distributed in water pipeline network randomly, and loss of water by different earthquake intensity can be assessed. The simulations help us to analyze the water supply capabilities by different earthquake intensity. Base on spatial uncertainty analysis of random distributed damaged points, the reliability of water supply system is estimated.