A tool for real time demand estimation

Electrical load forecasting in power system is a most basic requirement to facilitate the generation scheduling and is an important task for ensuring reliability and economic operation. All around the globe a large number of load forecasting procedures / tools are being used and most of these basically use the statistical data to project the demand on daily/ weekly/ monthly/ yearly basis. However, due to the fast changing scenario in real time power system, the SCADA data of the recent past period can also immensely help the operator towards demand side management for the immediate future period say for next half an hour to one hour more accurately and quickly. In India with the increase in the size of the grids as well as large interconnections, along with the increased complexities towards power system operation and control, there has also been a phenomenal expansion and growth of power markets. These markets have assumed greater importance, particularly after the advent of The Electricity Act 2003, introduction of open access in transmission and emergence of power exchanges. In this paper an attempt has been made to deliberate on an approach which is helping in estimating the demand more accurately for shorter durations on a real time basis. The basic principle adopted in this approach is that it applies the simple time series analysis to estimate the demand in the dynamically changing grid conditions. This tool is in practical use and has been found to be of immense benefit to the grid operators at various state and regional load dispatch centres (LDC) in the country. With this utility the operators are able to estimate the demand for future 30 minutes on a real time basis and this is helping them in taking an advance action towards ensuring the grid operation with reliability, security and economy.