The Calculation of Transfer Reliability Margin Based on the Probabilistic Load Flow

This paper establishes probabilistic model, after finishing the calculation of TTC, it uses the method that combines the concept of cumulant and Gram-Charlier expansion theory to calculate probabilistic load flow(PLF).It also analyzes the probability density function(PDF) and immits a new concept-probabilistic Margin(PM),which can make a new system limit for uncertain factor in system. In the end it can calculate TRM for system. This method extremely has the reference value with the dispatch department´s decision-making and planning. Also it has special value in the research and its application under the electric power market environment. IEEE 39-bus test system is used to verify the proposed method.