Title :
A random graph model for terrorist transactions
Author :
Mifflin, Thomas L. ; Boner, Christopher ; Godfrey, Gregory A. ; Skokan, Jozef
Author_Institution :
Metron, Inc., Reston, VA, USA
Abstract :
We present a simple model for transactional evidence of terrorist activities that occur in the midst of massive amounts of "transactional noise". The theory is based on random graphs. We consider two random graph processes: an uncorrelated noise model G(n,p) and a target plus noise model GH(n,p) that prescribes a threat subgraph H within the generated evidence graph. We derive a closed form expression for the likelihood ratio statistic that discriminates between the two processes. The results are extended to other random graph processes, including one in which some of the edges are not visible to the observer. The results suggest that pattern detection in structured, linked data requires pattern matching and that detection with imperfect observability requires hypotheses management.
Keywords :
graph theory; maximum likelihood detection; noise; pattern matching; random processes; terrorism; transaction processing; closed-form expression; generated evidence graph; imperfect observability; likelihood ratio statistic; linked data; pattern detection; pattern matching; random graph model; random graph process; structured data; target plus noise model; terrorist activities; terrorist transactions; threat subgraph; transactional evidence model; transactional noise; uncorrelated noise model; Background noise; Biographies; Graph theory; Noise generators; Noise level; Observability; Pattern matching; Random processes; Statistics; Working environment noise;
Conference_Titel :
Aerospace Conference, 2004. Proceedings. 2004 IEEE
Print_ISBN :
0-7803-8155-6
DOI :
10.1109/AERO.2004.1368131